LRA Plan 'B' means more suffering
Reports in Ugandan newspapers about one of Kony’s brigadiers being captured and indications that some of his men are entering Ituri forest from Garamba come to us as no surprise. This is because even prior to the signing of cessation of hostilities information had filtered out that Kony was desperate to find a way of getting Dominic Ongwen and his fighters who were stuck in Uganda out and into Congo or Southern Sudan. There was also talk about efforts to beef up the numbers of core fighters by an additional 7,000 men. The condition of cessation of hostilities that allowed for the fighters to keep their weapons was God sent to the LRA. Moreover, the freedom given to fighters in Uganda to move and assemble in Southern Sudan and not in Uganda provided a good escape route for those who were trapped. One could argue that the LRA leadership was taking out an insurance policy in case the talks failed. We are however inclined to think that all along the leadership were keen in developing their plan ‘B’, which is the military option. Information filtering through from Juba indicate that even within the LRA delegation there is a split between those who are committed to the talks and those who are for plan ‘B’. It is therefore not surprising that the LRA have up to today not nominated their 2 representatives to oversee the cessation of hostilities. No member of the LRA delegation in Juba has dared to volunteer to be part of this as they are not sure what the position of the military leadership is. Part of the responsibility of being on the cessation of hostilities team includes inspecting and agreeing the proposed assembly sites. No one from the LRA Juba team want to be the ones to agree this in case it turns out to be a trap for the fighters. They would rather the fighters sent their own representatives. This development has clearly exposed the weakness of the LRA Juba delegation. When it comes to key decisions such as this they clearly do not have the power to act. Without this weakness being addressed, the next phase of the negotiations remain a far away dream.