LRA Leadership in a fix
A a short break has allowed Juba Talks Blogspot to to visit East and Central Africa to assess the situation on the ground. A worrying discovery has been the apparent fix that the LRA leadership are in. They appear to be so distrustfull of any external advice such that they are gradually gliding back into their survival instinct mode of 'fight or die'. This is not withstanding the provocations that the Uganda Government forces have also recently made, the alleged masaacre of 41 innocent civilins being one.
A Juba Talks Blogspot contributor recently visited Juba. Clearly, there appeared to be lack of direction particularly on how to deal with the issue of the ICC warants. While our contributor was there, frantic efforts were being made to identify legal experts from abroad. It appeared as if Vincent Otti made contact with a firm of lawyers abroad. It was not clear whether this firm was based in New York, Sweden or London. What was leaked to our contributor however was that a Ugandan lawyer based abroad is actively seeking legal support for the LRA leadership to counter the ICC warrants. However, the LRA leadership is so frightenned of falling into the ICC trap such that they cannot make up their minds whether they should enagage any external legal firm. They prefer to deal with the local legal representatives from Uganda as these do not have the international contact that they fear.
Tension remains high and is building up day by day in Juba. When our contributor was in Juba, the numbers of those people who at the beginning claimed to be part of the LRA negoatiation team had dwindled. While Dr Paito from the UK made a trip out to UK but returned, his colleague Dr Walter Okello was no where to be seen. It wasn't clear whether he had any plans to rejoin the negoatiation team. Rumour has it that he has fallen out of favour with some in the team. Other LRA Juba team members are also apprehensive about their fate in case the Juba talks fail. This is becoming even more of a problem since the hosts, the Government of Southern Sudan, are very upset about the killing of their innocent citizens. If it turns out that it was the LRA, and the talks fail, will the LRA Juba team members be able to exit Sudan? This is the major question that our contributor left the team pondering on.
Saturday, October 21, 2006
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
LRA Juba team break to mark anniversary of Obote's death
The LRA negotiation team have today decided not to attend the talks because they wanted to respect the first anniversary of former President Obote's death. They had previously requested the mediator to adjourn the talks so that both sides could respect the anniversary but the Uganda delegation refused. Meanwhile, the Uganda delegation are spending today discussing the Draft Comprehensive Peace Agreement that the LRA team handed over yesterday. So, whilst a some days ago the alleged military build up and movement on both sides sent out negative signals about the prospects for the talks continuing, both teams appear not to have been derailed in their commitment to carry on with the talks. We hope this is a sign of good things to come for the long suffering people of Northern Uganda and Southern Sudan
The LRA negotiation team have today decided not to attend the talks because they wanted to respect the first anniversary of former President Obote's death. They had previously requested the mediator to adjourn the talks so that both sides could respect the anniversary but the Uganda delegation refused. Meanwhile, the Uganda delegation are spending today discussing the Draft Comprehensive Peace Agreement that the LRA team handed over yesterday. So, whilst a some days ago the alleged military build up and movement on both sides sent out negative signals about the prospects for the talks continuing, both teams appear not to have been derailed in their commitment to carry on with the talks. We hope this is a sign of good things to come for the long suffering people of Northern Uganda and Southern Sudan
Tuesday, October 03, 2006
The Monitor confirms our warning of planned Government military action against the LRA
In our last posting we warned that the LRA and Uganda Government troops were poised for a military showdown in the light of the fledgling Juba peace talks. Today's report in a Ugandan newspaper proves our point RODNEY MUHUMUZA writing in the Daily Monitor under the heading Museveni asks US to back plan B against LRA states:
President Yoweri Museveni has said Uganda will expect
Washington's support to hunt down the LRA's top leadership if
the Juba peace talks do not yield a comprehensive peace
agreement.
At yesterday's State House meeting with Mr John Edwards, the
North Carolina Senator, who was candidate John Kerry's running
mate in the 2004 US presidential race, Mr Museveni hinted that
with the peace talks mired in a circus of generic proposals
between the parties, Plan B may already be in motion.
The Juba peace talks, Museveni said, are only about improving
Joseph Kony's life expectancy and not fixing an insurgency
that has dragged on for nearly two decades.
"The President said that the government of Uganda is
absolutely committed to the Juba talks, but if the LRA does
not show seriousness, then the United States should back
Uganda at the United Nations to hunt for the LRA," a statement
from State House said, adding that "Britain and Uganda will be
co-sponsoring" a resolution to hunt down the LRA's leadership.
Edwards, the statement said, promised to lobby for the passing
of the resolution that would allow for the pursuit,
disarmament and demobilisation of the LRA.
As we here at Juba Talks blogspot warned, the indications are clearly that a miltary showdown is increasingly becoming the next step.This will be very unfortunate and is very much a result, in our view, of the inability of the LRA delegation and the religious, elected and cultural leaders not effectively pushing for the ICC warrants of arrest on Kony, Otii and others to at least be suspended. If this was done, the LRA miltary leadership would have had no other excuse to engage directly in the talks. Secondly, some of the constitutional issues that the LRA delegation have raised, such as creation of a federal system and of two parallel armies are matters that would require a national diologue with a cross representation of the Uganda people. This is a national discussion that could be had after paece has been attained. At this point, the LRA delegation should be pushing for a commitment from the Government that such a national dialogue will be instituted, for example, within a year of the peace agreement being signed. We therefore pray that the LRA delegation do not paly into the hands of Museveni by taking intransigent positions and giving him the excuse to unleash his army. The collateral damage will be the people of Northern Uganda and Southern Sudan.
In our last posting we warned that the LRA and Uganda Government troops were poised for a military showdown in the light of the fledgling Juba peace talks. Today's report in a Ugandan newspaper proves our point RODNEY MUHUMUZA writing in the Daily Monitor under the heading Museveni asks US to back plan B against LRA states:
President Yoweri Museveni has said Uganda will expect
Washington's support to hunt down the LRA's top leadership if
the Juba peace talks do not yield a comprehensive peace
agreement.
At yesterday's State House meeting with Mr John Edwards, the
North Carolina Senator, who was candidate John Kerry's running
mate in the 2004 US presidential race, Mr Museveni hinted that
with the peace talks mired in a circus of generic proposals
between the parties, Plan B may already be in motion.
The Juba peace talks, Museveni said, are only about improving
Joseph Kony's life expectancy and not fixing an insurgency
that has dragged on for nearly two decades.
"The President said that the government of Uganda is
absolutely committed to the Juba talks, but if the LRA does
not show seriousness, then the United States should back
Uganda at the United Nations to hunt for the LRA," a statement
from State House said, adding that "Britain and Uganda will be
co-sponsoring" a resolution to hunt down the LRA's leadership.
Edwards, the statement said, promised to lobby for the passing
of the resolution that would allow for the pursuit,
disarmament and demobilisation of the LRA.
As we here at Juba Talks blogspot warned, the indications are clearly that a miltary showdown is increasingly becoming the next step.This will be very unfortunate and is very much a result, in our view, of the inability of the LRA delegation and the religious, elected and cultural leaders not effectively pushing for the ICC warrants of arrest on Kony, Otii and others to at least be suspended. If this was done, the LRA miltary leadership would have had no other excuse to engage directly in the talks. Secondly, some of the constitutional issues that the LRA delegation have raised, such as creation of a federal system and of two parallel armies are matters that would require a national diologue with a cross representation of the Uganda people. This is a national discussion that could be had after paece has been attained. At this point, the LRA delegation should be pushing for a commitment from the Government that such a national dialogue will be instituted, for example, within a year of the peace agreement being signed. We therefore pray that the LRA delegation do not paly into the hands of Museveni by taking intransigent positions and giving him the excuse to unleash his army. The collateral damage will be the people of Northern Uganda and Southern Sudan.
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