Chissano to oversee peace.
We pointed out through this blog spot that the 1992 Mozambique model of negotiations ought to be followed. It is not surprising therefore that former Mozambique President Chissano is being tipped as the UN envoy to oversee this. So far so good. But, will we get to the stage where he has any form of agreement to oversee? We previously posted the section of the Mozambiqe agreement that deals with ceasefire. The arrangment during the Mozambique talks was for a UN team to verify issues, such as location of troops, quantity of ammunitions and guns etc. The Community of Sr Edgidio who hosted these talks in Rome are very much aware of this. In Juba, the Goverment of Uganda is demanding that the LRA provides this information to them. Our view is that this will be a sticking point. It is only proper for such information to be given to a 'neutral' body, as was the case when FRELIMO and RENAMO were settling their Mozambique conflict. Turning to the stalled Juba talks, it appears the intervention of the Salva Kiir, the President of Southern Sudan has brought some pressure to bear on the LRA team, however dysfunctional they may have appeared to be. Whether their 'principals' namely Kony, Otii and the the rest of the military leadership will accept to resume talks without a ceasefire is open to question. Ceasefire or ceasation of hostilities would have given LRA units currently trapped in Uganda to regroup and rejoin their colleagues in DRC/South Sudan. Backing down on the ceasefire/ceasation of hostilities as a pre-requisite for the resumption of the next round of talks is likely to be seen by the military wing of the LRA as a failure by its civilian team in Juba to deliver. We hope that will not be the case.